12:46PM EDT November 2. 2012 - Are you better off than you were four years ago?
Friday's unemployment numbers, showing that the nation's jobless rate crept up from 7.8% to 7.9% as the economy added 171,000 jobs, are the last big economic report Americans will get before the presidential election next week.
Whether the report adds up to a second term for President Obama or delivers Republican Mitt Romney to the Oval Office is up to the voters. Here are some of the signposts:
Is the job market better?
Yes. Slightly better, if you count from the month Obama took office. Much better, if voters grant Obama his argument that he should be judged on progress from the bottom of the economic avalanche that was in midstream when he was sworn in.
There were 111 million private sector jobs in January 2009 when Obama took office; that plunged to 106.8 million by February 2010. With Friday's numbers, the figure rose to 111.7 million. Obama's claim that the nation created 5 million jobs on his watch comes from counting jobs created starting in February 2010, the lowest point for job creation since he took office.
JOBS REPORT: More stories, analysis, video on employment
Historically, either pace of job growth is better than George W. Bush did in his two terms. The progress since 2010 outstrips the performance of George H.W. Bush. But job growth in Ronald Reagan's first term and Bill Clinton's first term were stronger.
Government jobs, about 16% of the nation's 133.8 million jobs, are a different story. There are 565,000 fewer teachers, cops and other state, local and federal government workers than when Obama took office.
Has the job situation improved enough? That's what elections decide.
Are wages better?
For most people, no. In September, the median household income of $51,438 was still 4.7% lower than in June 2009, when the recession officially ended, according to Sentier Research. It's 8% below where it was in 2000, Sentier says.
"The September level of real median annual household income is moderately higher than in January 2012 ($51,067), although there is evidence that the economy continues to struggle,'' Sentier says. "Even though we are technically in an economic recovery, real median annual household income is still having a difficult time recovering."
Is that good enough? Voters will tell us.
Is wealth better?
This is another economic avalanche question. The biggest element of wealth for most people is the value of their home, and , the average family saw its total net worth fall 40% between 2007 and 2010, according to the Federal Reserve.
A recovery in wealth is underway, but it still has a long way to go. The Dow Jones industrial average is up 66% since Obama took office -- and has nearly reclaimed its 2007 peak.
But housing prices are up more than 10% in the past year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Home prices fell more than 30% on average between 2006 and 2010, and are now more than 40% of the way back to normal, says Jed Kolko, chief economist of real estate website Trulia.
Is that enough? The election will decide.
Is momentum better?
Clearly, yes. The problem is, having better economic momentum than the nation did in the fourth quarter of 2008 or early 2009 isn't saying much. There's no way to know, before Tuesday, whether voters think the economy's momentum is enough.
The economy has added 2 million jobs in the past year, a pace comparable to the period from October 2003 to October 2004. The economy has grown 2.3% in the past 12 months, hampered by the financial crisis in Europe and the prospect of another showdown over U.S. fiscal policy at the end of the year, which have both cut into business investment.
That's much slower than in 1984, when Reagan faced re-election, and also about a percentage point less than the annual growth rate in the re-election years for either George W. Bush or Bill Clinton.
Private forecasters such as Moody's Analytics project the economy will add 12 million jobs in the next four years regardless of who wins on Tuesday.
Neither pundits, politicians, or economists know whether the voters know that.
Source: http://www.news.theusalinks.com/2012/11/02/is-economy-better-now-you-decide/
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