Florida Republicans left to ponder future as Obama victory in state looks likely

Exactly why those efforts fell short and what it means for Florida's Republicans in the future is the source of an ongoing debate and plenty of soul-searching.

"Last night was an especially tough one for all of us," Lenny Curry, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, wrote in a letter to party members, adding, "We didn't win the White House, and we lost some races we thought we could win. Many people, including me, will study this race over the coming days to determine where we can improve our operations and how we can execute better."

For some, the biggest problem was a straightforward one: GOP efforts on the ground were no match for the Obama campaign's superior organization, discipline and data.

"They built a very effective, powerful turnout machine," said Rick Wilson, a longtime Florida GOP strategist. "It was brilliantly executed, and it was driven by data and analytics that we have never seen before."

Wilson said the Romney campaign and the Republican Party worked relentlessly to expand on 2008 totals — at last count, Romney had won about 53,000 more votes than McCain did. But the strategist said they also failed to recognize the Obama campaign's ability to single out and motivate "low-frequency" voters, particularly Hispanics, African Americans and young people who had not voted four years ago.

"We underestimated their ability to push the numbers they got in 2008 any higher. Obviously, they could," Wilson said. "It wasn't the message. It wasn't the strategy. . . . They built a machine that defeated us."

The reality isn't quite that simple, said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida.

"I don't buy that, not in Florida," she said of the notion that organization alone put Obama on pace to win the state for the second time. She noted that the state has half a million more registered Democrats than Republicans, and yet Obama held only a 50,000-vote margin Wednesday, with some counties still tallying absentee ballots.

"You don't get a nail-biter, ­photo-finish race unless you have a pretty strong get-out-the-vote effort by the Republicans," MacManus said.

Rather, she said, part of the answer lies in Florida's changing demographics. There are more Hispanics than ever in the state now, and they turned out more strongly for Obama than in 2008. Higher percentages of women and young people also sided with the president this time, helping him cling to a narrow lead in the state.

Source: http://www.news.theusalinks.com/2012/11/07/florida-republicans-left-to-ponder-future-as-obama-victory-in-state-looks-likely/